Banbridge
Banbridge
26th-Dec-2024
Message of 9th December 2024
I have had Banbridge in mind for the King George for a little while, and it is time to back him now.
He was very disappointing on his seasonal return in the Fortria Chase, but it just wasn’t his running, for whatever reason. He does go well fresh though, so it was a concern, but, now that he has bounced back to form yesterday in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork, it’s time to back him for the King George.
The two-mile trip should have been shorter than ideal for Joseph O’Brien’s horse yesterday, but he was able to travel and jump, and he emerged as a real threat to Energumene on the run to the last. I think he would have given the favourite a real race, giving him 10lb, if he hadn’t unseated at the final fence.
He is adaptable in terms of distance. He had the pace to win the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham as a novice, and to win the Champion Chase at Punchestown in April, when he needed every yard of the two-mile trip to get up to beat Captain Guinness. But he won the Martin Pipe Hurdle over two and a half miles at the Cheltenham Festival as a novice, a race that is almost always a stamina race. Actually, we backed him for the Brown Advisory Chase the following season, thinking that he would step up in trip and that he would be a staying novice chaser in the 2022/23 season. That plan was doomed from the time that he won the Arkle Trial over two miles. He was actually targeted at the Turners Chase at Cheltenham, over two and a half miles, but, in the end, he didn’t run there either because of the soft ground.
He is still unproven over three miles, which is a negative in the King George statistically, but he has always shaped like a stayer with pace, and he was impressive in winning a novice hurdle over two miles and five furlongs at Roscommon in July 2021.
He is a super jumper of fences and, on his only run to date at Kempton, he won the Grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase last January. The test that Kempton presents should suit him well, he has an ability to jump and travel and, if he does get the trip, he should be a big player in the race.
Very soft ground would be a worry, he has always been steered away from soft ground, but he coped with soft ground yesterday okay, and it is rarely heavy at Kempton for the King George. Actually, six of the last 10 renewals have been run on good or good to soft ground.
It may not be a vintage renewal of the King George this year. Fastorslow is, regrettably, out for the season, and Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower don’t hold entries. Of course, one or both may be supplemented, but they may not be.
Corbetts Cross is a talented individual, but Kempton may not suit him. Grey Dawning was beaten by Royal Pagaille in the Betfair Chase, Ginny’s Destiny has been disappointing twice now this season. Il Est Francais may not travel after pulling up last time, Bravemansgame has been beaten twice this season. Envoi Allen is such an admirable performer, he is top class and he retains all his enthusiasm, but he is 10 now, and Kauto Star is the only horse aged older than nine to win the King George since Edredon Bleu won it in 2003. And before Edredon Bleu, it was Desert Orchid.
It looks like the King George is the plan for Banbridge all right now and, while he has been backed this morning, he still looks a fair way over-priced in my book.
Message of 26th December 2024
We are obviously well ahead of the market with Banbridge. He is a runner, and the ground has remained in his favour, as we hoped it would.
The addition of Spillane’s Tower to the race on Friday was not ideal, and he is the biggest danger in my book. But he is short, and he might not be at home on the goodish ground.
It is a fascinating race, but you can pick holes in the chances of many. Il Est Francais put up a monster performance in winning the Kauto Star Chase last year, cloicking a time that was over three seconds faster than the time that Hewick clocked in winning the King George, but he burst a blood vessel last time, he has not had the ideal preparation.
Grey Dawning may be better going right-handed today, but he had to have had a very hard race at Haydock, and anyway, I think that he will need to take a step forward on anything that he has achieved to date if he is going to win.
L’Homme Presse is a player, but he jumps to his left and he may have spurned a much better opportunity two years ago, and he may be better on softer ground. Corbetts Cross is talented, but Kempton may not be his ideal track, he is going to have to jump more fluently than he did last time if he is going to prevail. Envoi Allen is such an admirable horse, but he is 10 now, 10-year-olds have a poor record in the race, and he didn’t operate at all on his only run at the track two years ago.
The Real Whacker is probably a bigger price than he should be, he will love the ground too, he goes into the race on the back of a good performance and his trainer’s horses are in good form. But he was disappointing in the race last year, and that is a worry.
If I had to have a bet in the race today, if we weren’t involved already, I would be backing Banbridge, even at the shorter price. He is unproven at the trip, but, for all the reasons outlined when we backed him, I think that there is a chance that he will improve for it. And, with JJ Slevin committed to Leopardstown, Paul Townend is obviously a brilliant booking. It is not a surprising booking though, and it is a big positive that he has ridden him already in a race.
BANBRIDGE WON (ADV 12/1, SP 7/1)
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