Surely Not

Tricky day today.  I think that Alder is the most likely winner of the Dee Stakes and I think that Hamish is the most likely winner of the Ormonde, but there is not much in them at respective prices.

I do think that Surely Not is a little over-priced for this seven-and-a-half-furlong three-year-olds’ handicap.

You can see why Theoryofeverything is favourite.  He was an impressive winner at Doncaster on his racecourse debut, and he ran well in the Greenham Stakes last time to finish third behind Isaac Shelby and Charyn, who ran well for a long way in the Guineas on Saturday.

I think that he is the correct favourite, but he is rated 94, he has to carry top weight, he is short and he is drawn wide, and it may be that this will be a sharper test than ideal for him, over seven and a half furlongs on Chester’s turns.

By contrast, it could be ideal for Surely Not.  Dominic Ffrench Davis’ horse was a good winner of a seven-furlong nursery at Newbury in September off a mark of 74 on easy ground, and he was impressive in winning at Newmarket’s Craven meeting on his debut this season off a mark of 79, again on easy ground.

It may be that he had the run of the race, held up out the back, but he quickened impressive and he won with tons in hand, idling once he got to the front.  A 7lb hike was not harsh and, gelded during the winter, there could be much more to come now.  He has to step forward again now, but there are reasons for believing that he could, and he shouldn’t be a 5/1 shot.

There is lots of pace in his pedigree, he is a half-brother to With Thanks, who excelled over seven furlongs on soft ground, and that is exactly what Surely Not will have today.  His trainer’s horses continue to be in good form, and William Buick is a great booking.

SURELY NOT WON (ADV 5/1)