Scaramanga

I am backing Scaramanga in this two-mile handicap.  He hasn’t won yet in 10 tries on the flat, but he has improved over hurdles since he last ran on the flat, and there is every chance that his flat rating of 86 under-rates him now by a fair way.

He has run some good races too in defeat on the flat, like when he finished second to Table Mountain in a two-mile handicap at Ascot last July, and when he finished third in a handicap at Newmarket last June behind first-past-the-post Volcanic Sky, who won next time at Kempton by five lengths off a 3lb higher mark.

Third in a listed hurdle at Ascot last October, Scaramanga was off all winter, but he won twice over hurdles in the spring, rising from a hurdles rating of 139 to a rating of 151.  He gets to race today off a flat rating of 86, the same rating as he had last autumn.  There is a chance that he is simply a better hurdler than he is a flat horse, but there is also a chance that he is just an improved horse since last year, and hurdles rating of 151 gives him lots of leeway in a flat rating of 86.

He stays two and a half miles over hurdles, and he stays two miles on the flat.  He goes well on good ground, and he is one for one at Newbury, over hurdles.

SCARAMANGA WON (ADV 7/1, SP 13/2)