Tarnawa

4th-Oct-2020

My initial view on the Prix de l’Opera was that Tarnawa would not be advantaged by dropping down in trip to 10 furlongs.  But, watching yesterday’s racing, and seeing how tiring the ground was, it is probable that you will need to stay 12 furlongs to win today’s Opera.

That is in favour of Tarnawa.  She is probably at her best over a mile and a half, but she won the Blandford Stakes last year over 10 furlongs.  More than that, it is probably against Alpine Star, a top class miler who gets 10 furlongs, as she proved in the Prix de Diane.  But it may be that she will struggle with the premium on stamina that today’s conditions will place.

I think that Tarnawa has been under-rated by the market.  Dermot Weld’s filly’s reputation probably suffered unfairly when she was well beaten in the Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes on Champions’ Day at Ascot last year.  She was impressive in winning the Give Thanks Stakes on her debut this season, when she was weak in the market.  She beat Cayenne Pepper well that day, and Cayenne Pepper then came out and ran out an impressive winner of the Blandford Stakes.  Then Tarnawa stepped up on that in winning the Prix Vermeille impressively last time.

This will be just her third run of the season.  We know that she goes well at the track, and she goes well on soft ground.  Tawkeel is a progressive filly, and Alpine Star is obviously top class, and Ambition could out-run big odds, but it may be that the conditions will bring Tarnawa’s proven stamina into play.  She could run a big race.

TARNAWA WON (ADV 9/2, SP 18/5)