Rest of the World

I think that there is an angle to the Shergar Cup.  I think that the jockeys with whom we are familiar are over-bet, with the result that the riders with whom people are not so familiar in this part of the world are under-bet.

In the market for the Silver Saddle, for example, for top rider at the meeting, the first five in the market are, respectively, Jamie Spencer, Hayley Turner, Tadhg O’Shea, Danny Tudhope and Gerald Mosse, with all of whom British and Irish punters and bookmakers are obviously familiar.

There is a real element at play, that those five riders are high-class riders, and all five are familiar with Ascot.  And it may be that those five riders have the five best books of rides on the day.  But, even if they do, the disparity between their odds for the Silver Saddle and the odds for some of the Rest of the World riders is too great …

From a betting perspective, the value (in the team competition) lies with the Rest of the World and the European riders, which is not wholly surprising, given that they are the riders with whom the betting public in this part of the world is least familiar.  Interestingly, since the current format to the competition was instigated, with the Girls team included, in the seven runnings since and including 2012, the Rest of the World team has won the team competition twice, and the European team has won it twice.  The Girls have won it twice, and the Great Britain and Ireland team, with the riders with whom we are most familiar, have won it once.

So, according to a formula that is based on probabilities and expected values of each ride relative to the competition, I have the Rest of the World team at just over 7/2, so the 4/1 that is freely available about them is too big.

REST OF THE WORLD WON (ADV 4/1)