Raising Sand

6th-Oct-2018

Raising Sand could run a big race here.  Jamie Osborne’s horse ran a big race in the Cambridgeshire last Saturday, and he has more in his favour today than he had then, so there is every chance that he can do even better.

The quality of that Cambridgeshire run went under the radar a little, at least initially, probably because he only finished eighth overall.  He raced on the near side that day, which wasn’t favoured.  He actually did best of the eight horses who raced on the near side, he finished two lengths clear of the next best, and he only finished five lengths behind the overall runner-up.

That was on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, and it was over nine furlongs, a distance that was probably further than ideal.  He should do better today, back down to seven furlongs.

Crucially, he is back at Ascot, the track at which he has put up the best five performances of his life.  That should bring about further improvement.  He finished third in this race last year behind this year’s Queen Anne Stakes 1-2 Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters.

He started this season on a mark of 100, but he has slipped back down to a mark of 97 today, which gives him a chance.  That is also 1lb lower than the mark off which he raced in this race last year.

He will not mind any rain, he goes well on easy ground and he stays further than seven furlongs.  A stiff, fast-run seven furlongs on easy ground at Ascot is close to optimum for him, and that is probably what he will get today.  And Nicola Currie, who rode him for the first time in the Cambridgeshire, takes off a useful 3lb.

Cape Byron was on my shortlist, as were Ripp Orf and Firmament, but Raising Sand is the bet.

RAISING SAND WON (ADV 9/1 [R4], SP 5/1)