Vintage Brut

24th-May-2018

There is a good angle into this race, because a lot of the fancied horses are drawn well away from the favoured far rail.  The well-drawn Vintage Brut has been backed this morning, but I think that he should still be shorter than the 4/1 at which we can back him.

There is more to Vintage Brut’s chance than just his draw in stall one.  He was really impressive in winning on his racecourse debut at Thirsk five weeks ago.  He came clear of the well-backed and once-raced Wasntexpectingthat that day under just a hands-and-heels ride, and that horse has won on his only run since.  Also, the time was good, and the third and fourth horses have both run well in defeat since. It looks like a solid performance.

Perhaps that fact that he was sent off at 25/1 has led the market to under-rate the performance.

The worry is that the ground was soft that day.  We don’t know that he will be able to replicate that performance on today’s better ground, but we don’t know that he won’t, and there is some rain forecast.  The ground is officially good now, and Vintage Brut’s sire Dick Turpin’s progeny have good stats on good and good to firm ground.  The ground is an unknown, but it is a chance that is worth taking at 4/1.

Stall one is a great draw, as long as he doesn’t get sucked into going too fast too early in order to protect that draw.  As long as he goes a good even pace, even if that means that he has to sit in behind the front-runners, he should run well.

VINTAGE BRUT WON (ADV 4/1, SP 7/2)