Our Kaempfer

14th-Jan-2017

I am backing Our Kaempfer here at 8/1.  We had Charlie Longsdon’s horse on side in the Rowland Meyrick Chase last time when he unseated his rider early.  He was weak in the market before that race, but hopefully we can get him today.

A lot of the reasons for backing him at Wetherby hold true today.  He hasn’t yet won over fences, but his three completions have been encouraging.  All of those completions were over two and a half miles, but he stayed three miles well over hurdles, so he could improve significantly for the step up to three miles over fences.

He has been given a rating of 138 over fences, which is 2lb lower than his mark over hurdles, and that gives him a real chance.  He should be at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles, and he retains lots of scope for progression.

Two other positives.  Firstly, Sam Twiston-Davies takes over in the saddle, and secondly, he is back at Kempton, where he is one for one over hurdles.  He goes well on a flat track, but the fact that he has a 100% record at Kempton is another positive.

Kruzhlinin won this race last year, but he is 6lb higher today, and he may prefer softer ground.  I am afraid of Volnay De Thaix, who would be a big danger if he re-discovered his old hurdles form but, at a bigger price, I prefer Our Kaempfer.

OUR KAEMPFER WON (ADV 8/1, SP 5/1)