Rivet

22nd-Oct-2016

It is not surprising that the Aidan O’Brien horses dominate the betting for Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy.  The Ballydoyle trainer has won the race seven times, including three times in the last seven years, and he has won it with horses who have gone on to be top class, like High Chaparral, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot.

Capri is a worthy favourite, he stayed on strongly to win the Beresford Stakes last time, a race that has been a good pointer to the Racing Post Trophy, and it is not surprising to see money this morning for Yucatan, who ran Capri to three parts of a length in the Beresford on just his third run.

Aidan says that those two are likely runners, as is Finn McCool.  It looks like, if those three run, none of his other three entries will.

It may be that the market is being too conservative about the Ballydoyle runners, however.  These are improving two-year-olds, many of them are stepping up to a mile for the first time and, while the favourite has prevailed in seven of the last 10 renewals, it is a race that can throw up shocks.  Authorized was a 25/1 shot when he won it in 2006, Marcel was a 33/1 shot last year.

I am backing Rivet at 7/1 and Sir Dancealot at 16/1.  Rivet was impressive in winning the Convivial maiden at York in August, beating likely opponent on Saturday Contrapposto into second place.  He was green, he moved sharply to his left when Frankie Dettori asked him to pick up, but he showed a really good turn of foot to come clear from a good field of maidens.

He stepped up on that to win the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on his penultimate run.  He stayed on well that day, he ran to the end of the seventh furlong, leaving the impression that he would appreciate a step up to a mile.  That race is working out well with the third horse, D’Bai, who finished five lengths behind Rivet, running out a game winner of a listed race at Pontefract on Monday.

You have to forgive him his run in the Dewhurst Stakes, but he was very weak in the market before that race.  Also, he again shaped that day as if he would appreciate a step up in trip, and he was only beaten a total of three and a half lengths by Churchill in the end.  It is still high-class form.

Stepped up to a mile on Saturday for the first time, and back at Doncaster, the track at which he won the Champagne Stakes, putting up the best performance of his career to date, he should be able to step forward again.  He is bred for stamina and, by Fastnet Rock, he shouldn’t mind if the rains fall between now and Saturday ...

 

RIVET WON (ADV 7/1, 11/4)

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