Alice Springs

10th-Sept-2016

I am backing Alice Springs in the Matron Stakes.  I think that she is over-priced at 6/1, I think that the prospect of goodish ground has not really been factored into her price.

Of course, she was very disappointing in the Prix Rothschild last time, she was well beaten by Qemah, but that was not her true running.  The ground was softer than ideal for her and, also, it was her second disappointing run in France, at Deauville, from two attempts.

She was dynamite on her previous run in the Falmouth Stakes.  True, favourite Usherette was disappointing, but Alice Springs went through that race easily and she quickened like a top class filly, clocking a really good time.

The fact that Aidan O’Brien is happy to allow her take her chance in the Matron Stakes, and that he is happy to allow Minding run in the Champion Stakes instead – when he already had Found and Highland Reel in that race – suggests that her trainer is happy that she is back in top form, and that should be good enough to take her close.

Qemah is a high-class filly, but her three big runs this season have been on easy ground, and she is the one who is travelling on this occasion, whereas it is a home gig for Alice Springs.

Persuasive is also interesting, she is unbeaten and you just don’t know how good she is, but she is going to have to improve from her Atalanta Stakes win (form that is admittedly working out well through the runner-up Blond Me) if she is to move up to Group 1 level.

Jet Setting would have been interesting if there had been more rain, while you can see Now Or Never running a big race, without perhaps being good enough to win it.

ALICE SPRINGS WON (ADV 6/1, SP 5/1)

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