Dancing Star

30th-Jul-2016

I am backing Dancing Star for the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood.  I think that she is over-priced at the 12/1 or 14/1 at which we can back her.

Andrew Balding’s filly has a lot in her favour as a Stewards’ Cup prospect.  She only won her maiden last year as a juvenile in three attempts, but she has been seriously progressive as a sprinter this term.

She won her first two races this season off marks of 75 and 80 respectively, and she was a little unlucky in going down by a half a length to Mr Lupton the big Charity Sprint Handicap at York in mid-June off a mark of 89, the pair of them clear.

Then last Thursday, she was impressive in winning a heritage handicap at Newmarket off a mark of 96.  She only won by three parts of a length, but she left the impression that she had more in hand than that.

The handicapper raised her 6lb for that, which is the same as the penalty that she will have to carry in the Stewards Cup, but that may under-rate her rate of progression.  Interestingly, Magical Memory won that Newmarket race last year before going on to land the Stewards Cup under that 6lb penalty, the only three-year-old in the race.

As well as that, Dancing Star has proven that she can handle big-field handicaps, she goes on fast ground and on easy ground and, crucially, she is one for one at Goodwood, an idiosyncratic track, over the Stewards’ Cup course and distance.

She is a six-furlong filly, she gets a useful 5lb age allowance in the Stewards’ Cup (1lb more than Magical Memory got last year, because the race is in July this year instead of August), she has the potential to progress beyond her handicap mark and the Stewards’ Cup is her target.  I can see her going off at odds that are a fair bit shorter than her current odds.

 

DANCING STAR WON (ADV 12/1, SP 9/2)

 

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