Tawdeea

2nd-Jul-2016

I am backing Tawdeea in the Old Newton Cup. I think that he is over-priced at 9/1.

David O’Meara’s horse was nicely progressive at the start of this season, winning at Hamilton on soft ground and at Newcastle before running much better than his fifth-place finish suggests in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar.

Held up out the back of the field that day in a race that was run to suit the prominent racers, he was hampered twice on the far side when he was trying to make his ground in the home straight.

Left on his mark of 91 for that, he ran a cracker last time over today’s course and distance, stepped up to a mile and a half for the first time. He just couldn’t get past King Bolete, but there is no disgrace in that, King Bolete is a highly progressive individual who would have been favourite for this race had he run, and who holds an entry in the Group 1 Juddmonte International. Tawdeea did well to run him to a half a length, in receipt of just 3lb, with the two of them pulling six lengths clear of the other two runners.

The handicapper raised Tawdeea 4lb for that to a mark of 95, but that was fair. He has raced just eight times in his life, and he continues to progress. Also, he is proven over today’s course and distance, he probably improved for the step up to today’s distance last time for the first time, and he should be happier on today’s soft ground than he was on the fast ground last time. All looks set for a big run, and I would have had him in at a fair bit shorter than he is.

Duretto is a talented horse, but he is fashionable, and he is short. Desert Encounter has won his three races this season, and Green Light was impressive in winning at Epsom, but both are up in the handicap – by 5lb and 7lb respectively – and both are short.

I am getting Gold Prince on side as well, though, in a good each-way race at a big price. Silvester Kirk’s horse put up a really good performance on his debut this season to finish a close second at a big price in a decent 10-furlong handicap at Newmarket on fast ground off a mark of 86.

Raised 4lb for that, he again ran a good race to finish second in another good 10-furlong handicap at Epsom on Derby day at a big price. Last Saturday at Newmarket, he could only finish fourth behind Percy Street, but that was on heavy ground at Newmarket’s July course, and some horses just don’t handle heavy ground there. And even at that, he was still second with 100 yards to run.

He should do better now, stepped back up to a mile and a half. He could get an easier time of it in front at the longer trip. He handles soft ground well, and Luke Morris is a good booking. Sylvester Kirk’s horses are often under-rated and over-priced, and that appears to be the case with Gold Prince today. He could out-run massive odds by a fair way.

TAWDEEA WON (ADV 9/1, SP 8/1)
GOLD PRINCE 2ND (ADV 28/1, SP 25/1)

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