Jer's Girl

29th-Apr-2016

I think that Jer’s Girl is the most likely winner of this by a fair way, and I thought that she should have been a fair bit shorter than 9/4.

Gavin Cromwell’s filly is a hugely talented and progressive filly and she gets all the allowances today.  She gets the 11lb four-year-olds’ allowance and she gets the 7lb fillies’/mares’ allowance.  So, as the only four-year-old in the race, and the only filly or mare, she gets 18lb from all her rivals.

Of course, the allowances are there to compensate for perceived weaknesses, but there are reasons for believing that both are overly generous.  There used to be no mares’ allowance, and until recently it was only 5lb.  And the four-year-olds’ allowance has long-since been considered by many to be generous.

Weights aside, Jer’s Girl’s form is rock solid.  She was just beaten a head by Apple’s Jade in the Grade 2 juveniles’ hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, and Apple’s Jade ran a cracker to finish second in the Triumph Hurdle on her next run after an interrupted preparation, and then she cut loose at Aintree.

Behind Jer’s Girl that day was Footpad, who won the Grade 1 Spring Hurdle subsequently, and finished third in the Triumph, and Campeador, who would have at worst gone close to winning the Fred Winter Hurdle had he not come down at the final flight.

As well as that, Jer’s Girl probably put up the best performance of her life on her most recent run in the Grade 1 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Fairyhouse.  She travelled well the whole way, and she came clear of the useful pair Jessber’s Dream and Asthuria when Barry Geraghty asked her to.

That was her first run over two and a half miles, and she relished the step up in trip, so a return to that trip today is a positive.

A Toi Phil and O O Seven are the main dangers in my book, but it is difficult to see them being able to give 18lb to a filly who is as talented as Jer’s Girl.

JER'S GIRL WON (ADV 9/4, SP 11/8)