Nabucco

31st-Oct-2015

The case for Nabucco is fairly straightforward.  He was a talented horse on the flat for John Gosden as a four-year-old and a five-year-old, he beat Red Galileo in a listed race at Newmarket over a mile and a half in September last year on his latest run on the flat.

Rated 106 on the flat, he was a classy recruit to hurdles when he made his debut for John Ferguson at Aintree in June.  He didn’t run badly that day, he looked a big danger to the useful Cardinal Palace at the second last flight before lack of a recent run seemed to tell, and he weakened.

He has won his two hurdle races since, at Market Rasen in July and at Huntingdon two weeks ago.  They were both mediocre affairs, but he won both of them well.

This will be his first run in a handicap hurdle, but he is proven in big fields on the flat, his record in races with 10 or more runners on the flat reads 4210123.  Of course, he still has to prove it over hurdles, but a mark of 132 for his handicap debut over hurdles is more than fair, given that he is rated 106 on the flat.  He has raced just three times over hurdles, and he should continue to progress.  John Ferguson’s horses are in top form, he won this race last year with Pine Creek, and Nabucco is worth backing (ante post) at 5/1.

NABUCCO WON (ADV 5/1, SP 7/2)