Gold Trail

15th-Aug-2015

I am backing Gold Trail here at 5/1.  The Godolphin colt’s most recent two form figures, 8 and 6, are not inspiring, but he actually ran really well on both occasions, in big handicaps at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood respectively.

The Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot was a hot middle-distance handicap this year, as it usually is.  Gold Trail only finished eighth, but he was hampered at the furlong pole, but for which he could have finished closer.

In the Sky Bet Handicap at Goodwood, he stayed on nicely in the closing stages to finish sixth, beaten a total of just three lengths by the winner and a total of just a length and three quarters by the runner-up.  That was over a trip just short of 10 furlongs at a sharp track, a test that would have fallen a fair way short of Gold Trail’s optimum.

Charlie Appleby’s horse should be much happier today back over a mile and a half.  The handicapper dropped him by 2lb for his Goodwood run, which was an unexpected bonus, so he races off a mark of 98 today, 2lb lower than he has been for his last four runs, and just 2lb higher than his last winning mark.  That gives him a chance.

Goodish ground is ideal for him, and he returns to Newmarket’s July Course, where he finished second – albeit a long way behind the winner Winter Thunder – on his only run to date.

It is an open race, Blue Wave is tough, Farquhar is talented when things drop right for him, and Fattsota will be a danger if he gets into a rhythm up front, but I would have had Gold Trail in at a fair bit shorter than 5/1, and it is worth backing him at that.

GOLD TRAIL WON (ADV 5/1, SP 100/30)