Cable Bay

30th-May-2015

I am backing Cable Bay here at 5/1 or 6/1. I think that he should be clear favourite, and he is well worth backing at those odds.

He is basically an under-rated horse. He was a high-class juvenile, he finished second in the Dewhurst on his final run at two, but he didn’t reappear until August last year and he ran three disappointing races in a row. However, he rounded off the season with a good run to finish second to Here Comes When in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket.

This season, he has shaped really encouragingly in two runs. On his debut at The Curragh in April, he did well to finish a close-up third in a Group 3 race over seven furlongs having encountered traffic problems at a crucial stage of the race just when he wanted to go forward. And on his next and most recent run, he ran a cracker to finish a close-up fifth in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

He ran even better than the bare form of that race suggests. He was held up out the back of the field in a race that was run to suit the prominent horses. It made sense that he was held up, he was well beaten on his only previous attempt over a mile and his stamina for the trip was suspect. However, the front-runners didn’t come back. The horses who raced in second, third, fourth and fifth filled the first four places home, and Cable Bay finished fifth. He did best of those horses who were held up, better than Breton Rock, better than Aljamaaheer.

While he saw out the mile okay in the Lockinge, this seven furlongs is probably his optimum. Also, he goes well on easy ground, which he will have today. If the race was at Newmarket, that would be ideal, but he proved last time at Newbury and at The Curragh on his seasonal debut that he can operate away from Newmarket.

Jamie Spencer can ride him closer to the pace today if he wants to, over seven furlongs. He will not have to be as patient on him as he was over a mile. Also, Charlie Hills’ horses are back in form now after a quiet spell.

That Is The Spirit is one of a few horses who have chances. Aljamaaheer also came from the rear in the Lockinge, and he is another who will be suited by a drop in trip, but he probably wants faster ground than the ground that he is going to get today.

Fellow Lockinge runner Breton Rock is also a player, he will also like the easy gorund, and he should come on for that run, his seasonal debut. However, he is more fashionable than Cable Bay. He is shorter than he should be in my book, whereas Cable Bay is longer. Also, he may want the ground to be even softer than it is going to be today.

Ascription ran well at York last time, Emell keeps running eye-catching races, and Captain Cat is interesting dropped to seven furlongs. However, the first two may be out-classed, both will be interesting back down in grade now, Emell in particular at Goodwood, and Captain Cat is short enough now.

CABLE BAY WON (ADV 6/1, SP 5/1)

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