Kosika

19th-Jul-2014

I think that Kosika is over-priced here at 9/1 against some more fashionable rivals.

Mark Johnston’s filly does not have the sexy profile that, say, Token Of Love or Enraptured have, she has run eight times already this season and consequently does not have the scope for progression on the face of it that some of her rivals do. And that may well be the case, it may be that one or several of her rivals improve past her.

However, she is in tremendous form these days, she has won her last two, and Mark Johnston’s horses usually thrive on their racing. Once they start to improve, they can continue to move through the ranks even when it looks like they have reached a peak.

Like a lot on the Johnston horses, Kosika is tough. A winner on her racecourse debut as a juvenile for Godolphin, it has taken her a while to find her range this season, but she had that in common with a lot of the Mark Johnston horses. The yard hit form in June (moving from an 11% strike rate in May to a 17% strike rate in June) and that trend has continued into July, in which they have had 25 winners from 118 runners (a strike rate of 21%).

Kosika did well to win over seven furlongs at Carlisle on her penultimate run, when she raced freely in front, probably racing too keenly, but still kept on well to win nicely. Then she stepped up on that to win a seven-furlong handicap at Epsom two weeks ago off a mark of 82.

She had to cross over from a wide draw that day, she had to do a lot more running than ideal in order to bag the lead and the rail. Also, it looked like Intomist had her measure when that horse challenged her and went at least a neck up at the furlong pole, so there was a lot to like about the manner in which Kosika battled back up to win by a half a length.

The handicapper has raised her another 5lb for that, but she should still be able to win a good handicap off her new mark of 87. The step back up to a mile should suit her and, with just 5mm of rain overnight, the ground should be fast enough to enable her run a big race.

The withdrawal of Provenance removes a significant danger. Of those remaining, I fear Token Of Love and Aertex most, but Kosika is the value.

KOSIKA WON (ADV 9/1, SP 8/1)

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