Ifandbutwhynot

17th-Nov-2012

There are several horses in here who look potentially really well handicapped, including Buy Back Bob, who could be nicely treated over hurdles judged on his flat form this summer, but the ground could be really testing by the time of the last race and he may just be better on a sounder surface.

Ifandbutwhynot is another who looks potentially leniently treated on his first run in a handicap, the ground shouldn’t be a problem for him, and I am backing him at 8/1.

A useful bumper horse last year, he was a close fourth to the talented Shutthefrontdoor in a listed bumper at Ascot just before Christmas, he looked in need of the run on his first run over hurdles at Perth in September, quickening up with what looked a winning run over the second last before just getting tired. The two horses who beat him there have both won well since and he showed the benefit of that run when winning at Newcastle next time.

The winning margin was only narrow, but he travelled strongly throughout, quickened to the front ahead of the favourite Eduard between the third last and second last, and, despite clattering through the second last flight, he forged into a two-length lead up the run-in before idling badly and allowing the runner-up to get back to within a head.

The front two pulled nicely clear of some solid benchmarks up the home straight off what had only been a steady gallop. A mark of 117 looked lenient for him at the time, and it looks even more lenient now after the runner-up came out and won in smooth style back at Newcastle yesterday. The booking of Timmy Murphy for David O’Meara takes the eye, you can see Murphy travelling wide in search of better ground, and that may well be the order of the day by the time the last race rolls around and is run on what will surely be the worst of the ground.

IFANDBUTWHYNOT WON (ADV 8/1, SP 15/2)

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