Pearl Blue

13th-Oct-2012

I am backing Pearl Blue here at 7/1. Chris Wall’s filly seems to have plenty in her favour today and that price underestimates her chance in my book.

From four runs on ground officially soft or worse, her form figures read 1124, and she was beaten just a head in the first defeat, having pulled clear with the winner in a similar race to today’s at Newmarket’s July meeting. She is lightly raced compared to most of today’s field, she has only had 14 starts in her life, and crucially she comes here relatively fresh for the time of year, not having had a long hard season.

I think she is still very feasibly handicapped on a mark of 89, having been dropped 1lb since her last run when nothing really went right for her at Ffos Las behind Kyleakin Lass and Cheveton. She was held up and travelled strongly, but encountered some trouble in-running in attempting to find a passage, she dropped some way off the pace because of that at a crucial time, and the leaders weren’t stopping so it was very hard for her to make ground. The bigger field and likely strong pace here will suit her – she is drawn close to two likely prominent racers in Bosun Breese and Captain Dunne – although the draw is probably not going to have a significant effect now with all the non-runners.

Before that Ffos Las run she had run a cracker at Doncaster when beaten just a length and a quarter into fourth behind Face The Problem, who is now rated 18lb higher than the mark off which he ran there, with Kingsgate Choice, who was second, also boosting the form by winning a good race at Ascot on his next start. Pearl Blue was probably at least a little disadvantaged by racing out in the centre of the track there, the winner raced much closer to the stands side, and Pearl Blue would have finished closer too but for being carried right across to the far side late on by the runner-up. That was on good ground, she may well have won it had it been soft, and she can make amends today in her favourite conditions.

She is a hold-up horse and hold-up horses were definitely advantaged at York yesterday due to the fact that there was a strong headwind up the straight, so if that headwind is in force again today her running style should be favoured, especially as there are still a couple of front-runners left in the field. Chris Wall’s horses have hit form – he had a 16/1 winner of a listed race at Ascot last Saturday – and Pearl Blue looks set for a big run. The 7/1 or 13/2 at which you can back her now is obviously shorter than this morning’s early odds without the non-runners, but it is still a more than fair price given the reduced field. Jamaican Bolt is the biggest danger, but he is priced up just about right and I am happy to rely on Pearl Blue.

PEARL BLUE WON (ADV 13/2, SP 13/2)

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