Dancing Rain

03rd-Jun-2011

I am happy with our bet on Beatrice Aurore. All the reasons for backing her for the Oaks hold true, there has been plenty of money for her, she is solid in the market, we are ahead of the market and John Dunlop reports her in really good form. She may be out-classed, but she may not be, she is progressive enough to give herself a chance of winning the race, and she is still over-priced in my book at 16/1.

I am also backing Dancing Rain now at 14/1. William Haggas’s filly was impressive in winning her maiden at Newbury in April, staying on really well inside the final furlong to win well in the end from a useful filly in Highest, the filly who finished second to Beatrice Aurore in the Height Of Fashion Stakes. That was the second division of a maiden, and Dancing Rain’s winning time was more than two and a half seconds faster than the first division.

That was only her second run, it was almost certain that she would progress for it, and she did when she finished second, beaten just a head by another really useful filly in Izzi Top in a listed race back at Newbury, over the same course and distance as her maiden win.

Izzi Top is a useful filly, she is immaculately-bred from a top Meon Valley Stud family, out of Prix de l’Opera winner Zee Zee Top, and she shaped really well in two runs as a juvenile. However, Dancing Rain was the filly to take out of that listed race more than her. The sedate early pace wouldn’t have suited the Haggas filly at all, she pulled really hard through the early stages but still had enough energy left to battle all the way to the line.

She is not certain to get a mile and a half on pedigree, she is by Danehill Dancer out of an Indian Ridge mare, but she races over 10 furlongs as if she is crying out for a step up in trip, and her dam is a half-sister to Derby winner Dr Devious, so the distance shouldn’t hold any fears. On the contrary, she should improve for it.

She is proven on fast ground, and the fact that William Haggas is now set to allow her take her chance in the Oaks after some initial reticence speaks volumes. She has been strong in the market for the last week, which is a positive, she is obviously impressing somebody at home, and she is worth backing at 14/1.

DANCING RAIN WON (SP 20/1)

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