Credit Swap

2nd-Oct-2010

I am happy with (our bet on) Absinthe, I think he has got a good draw now in stall 28, the balance of probability suggests that you are better off being on the far side than in the centre or the stands side in the Cambridgeshire, especially on easy ground, and it looks like it is going to get softer now with more rain forecast. However, an interesting new contender has emerged for the Cambridgeshire in the shape of Credit Swap.

It didn’t look like the son of Diktat was going for the race, he ran in the handicap at Newmarket yesterday, but he is still in the race, and he is worth backing at 33/1. A winner at Yarmouth on soft ground two weeks ago, Credit Swap ran a cracker to finish a half-length second to Brick Red at Ascot on Sunday. He may have won that race had he been asked for his effort a little earlier or had he got a clear passage through.

It was a similar story yesterday at Newmarket, he was held up out the back in the early stages, stone last still with three furlongs to run. He just got held up for a stride or two when Jimmy Fortune wanted to go forward, but he finished best of all. Although he was only fourth, he was beaten just a total of about a neck, and he was in front three strides past the line, apparently finishing with plenty of energy left.

He is not your typically unexposed Cambridgeshire horse, but he has proven form, he is progressive now, his last two runs have probably been the best of his life, he handles the track and he goes on easy ground. On top of that, he is 2lb well-in, he has drawn stall 33 of 35, right over on the far side, and Jim Crowley is a good booking. There is a chance that he won’t line up, that his exertions yesterday and at Ascot on Sunday will just have taken too much out of him, but if he doesn’t line up, no harm done, it is not ante post now so we get our money back. There is also a chance that he will run flat if he does run, that three runs in six days will just be too much for him, but that possibility is more than factored into his price of 33/1.

CREDIT SWAP WON (ADV 25/1, SP 14/1)

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