Victoire De Lyphar

12th-Jun-2010

I am a little disappointed that Side Glance is running in this instead of in the seven-furlong handicap at Sandown today, for which he was also entered. I thought that was the race for him, the distance was ideal and his rating of 90 still under-rates his ability for me. Andrew Balding’s gelding ran a cracker two weeks ago in the Coral Sprint at Newmarket when we had him on side, he pulled hard in the early stages of the race and then he just got outpaced before staying on again really well to finish sixth. That was just his fourth ever run, he should come on again for it, and David Porbert replacing Liam Keniry today is not a negative. However, I just think that York’s six furlongs is going to be too sharp for him today. The faster pace should help him settle, but he could get run off his feet. I have no doubt that he will be staying on well today, and the Coral Sprint is an excellent pointer to this race, but he may not have enough time to make up the ground that he might lose when the pace picks up. If they go too fast early on, which is a possibility, he could pick up the pieces, but I just think that it will all happen a little quickly for him. I will be gutted if he wins, but I am leaving him alone, and hoping that they run him over seven furlongs next time.

I much prefer Victoire De Lyphar at only a slightly shorter price. The son of Bertolini, winner of an auction maiden at Doncaster in June, ran a cracker in a seven-furlong nursery at this track in September in a first-time visor to finish second to a progressive sort under 9st 2lb when with Patrick Haslam, but he stepped up on that on his debut this season, his first run for Dandy Nicholls, running on gallantly to beat Jack My Boy in a six-furlong contest at Doncaster in April. Jack My Boy won his next two races, and is now rated 15lb higher than he was then, while the third horse, Deacon Blues, won well at Yarmouth last Wednesday off a 3lb higher mark, so a 7lb hike for Victoire De Lyphar looks more than fair.

Furthermore, it is probable that Nicholls put him away after that run to prepare him for this. It made sense, given that he had course form. It is a race that Nicholls likes to win, having done so in 1999 (with Pepperdine) and with Tax Free in 2005, and it is significant that Victoire De Lyphar is his only representative today. He is progressive, he should be a fair way ahead of the handicapper on a mark of 90, he is racing off almost bottom weight of 8st 7lb in a race in which low weights tend to do best, and his low draw in stall five is an advantage given that the stalls are against the stands rail today. He is well worth backing at 12/1.

Hoof It is popular this morning, and I can see the argument, but Diman Waters and Imjin River have let the form of his York win down quite badly subsequently, when he may have been the beneficiary of a far-side bias. He got 9lb for winning there, and he got another whopping 13lb for winning an uncompetitive contest at Haydock on his next start. He is progressive, but he is obvious and there is a good chance that the handicapper has his measure.

VICTOIRE DE LYPHAR WON (ADV 12/1, SP 9/1)

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